The Geopolitical Implications of Assad’s Removal: A Multipolar Perspective

The departure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power has far-reaching implications for West Asia and the wider world, reshaping the regional dynamics and power relationships. From the perspective of Eurasia, multipolarity, and anti-hegemonic positions, such a development significantly affects key actors including Iran, Russia, China, Turkey, Israel, the United States, and the European Union.

Iran has long depended on Syria as an essential link in its “Axis of Resistance”, connecting Tehran with Hezbollah in Lebanon and providing a gateway to the Mediterranean. The departure of Assad and coming to power of potentially pro-Israeli terrorist elements disrupts this network, weakening Iran’s regional influence.

Russia’s Tartus and Hmeimim military bases provide crucial access to the Mediterranean and allow Moscow to project influence in the Middle East. Assad’s departure threatens these assets, potentially undoing Russia’s gains since its intervention in Syria in 2015. Moscow could seek a negotiated resolution that safeguards its military presence. If excluded, and most probably it will be excluded, Russia might strengthen alliances with Iran and China to balance US influence.

Although less directly involved militarily, China has a vested interest in Syria as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, linking Asia with Europe. Instability there could threaten Chinese infrastructure projects and disrupted regional trade routes. Truth be told, Syria did not benefit that much from the BRI until Assad’s removal. One of the reasons for the popular support for resurgent militant terrorist organizations is the high poverty level and lack of economic optimism.

The fact that Syria fell is not that much the direct involvement of foreign hostile powers (which have indeed financed the militants), it is the lack of military and economic support from ally countries like Russia and China.

Turkey views Assad’s downfall as an opportunity to extend its influence in northern Syria and advance its neo-Ottoman goals, suppressing Kurdish aspirations for independence or, maybe, would be willing to cut a part of Syria in order to relocate it’s own kurdish population there. Ankara decided to deepen its presence in northern Syria, establish buffer zones, and support pro-Turkish factions.

Assad’s exit created a security void along Israel’s northern border that could have lead to increased Hezbollah threats and new extremist activities if the prior military actions of Israel have not eliminated most of the threat posed by Hezbollah. Israel’s military intervention in southern Syria and the overall attacks on Syrian military bases and targets also eliminated Iran’s security presence.

There has been much talk about the rebranding of Abu Mohammad al-Julani, former Al-Qaeda terrorist, directly responsible for public beheadings, into something resembling Zelensky in Ukraine. The United States and European Union are the ones largely responsible for this public whitewashing and this leads many commentators to view Assad’s ouster as a strategic success against Russia and Iran. Prolonged instability similar to that seen in Iraq or Libya following regime change could emerge.

Western powers are seeking to secure energy routes through Syria, more exactly the oil route from Qatar to Turkey and from there on to Europe, thus nullifying any Russian position of power in the European Peninsula when it comes to energy.

From the perspective of the multipolar perspective, Assad’s departure is a US-led attempt to weaken the Russia-Iran-China axis and reinforce Western dominance. This might lead to closer cooperation among these Eurasian powers through organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS but could also put into question the powers of these to achieve their goals and to support allies across the world.