Israel-Azerbaijan relations become even closer | Why does this happen? Does it mean disaster for the region?


The Azerbaijani news site “AzerNews.az” published on July 17, 2024 an article with a very interesting topic for the West Asian region, with the title “Israeli expert: It is natural for Armenia to be jealous of Baku-Tel Aviv relations”.

The strengthening of relations between Azerbaijan and Israel has become more evident in recent years. These relations manifest themselves primarily in the economic, energy and military sectors and have strategic significance for both countries.

DEAN SHMUEL ELMAS, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYST AND WRITER FOR THE ISRAELI NEWSPAPER “GLOBES”

The analyst described Armenia as Iran’s main regional partner and went on to highlight the transfer of Israeli weapons to Azerbaijan, which he described significantly in the context of the recent conflict with Armenia.

Israel is Azerbaijan’s best partner in the region, and we know about the close relationship between President Aliyev and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

DEAN SHMUEL ELMAS

Interesting to note here is that Israel considers itself, in the opinion of this analyst, the “best partner” in the region for Azerbaijan. Until recently, maybe until a year ago, the connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan was a priority for Baku. This strategic rapprochement with Israel is being achieved in the context in which the Azerbaijanis already had solid relations with the Turks, Russians and Iranians.

Relations with Turkey are based on a very solid ethno-linguistic composition on which cooperation in the field of transportation has been placed, Turkey being the main western destination of the Middle Corridor that connects the Caucasus to the Central Asian states.

The relationship with Iran is a little more complex, but there is a common religious basis and in Iran lives a large population of Azerbaijanis, the Iranian Azerbaijanis. In fact, there are more Azeris living in Iran than in Azerbaijan, most of them in the provinces of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan and Hamadan. 12 million in total, but some estimates indicate up to 23 million. So there is a very large population of Azerbaijanis who could be urged to ask for unification with Azerbaijan someday. This population would also make it very difficult to manage any conflict, especially for Tehran.

The Israeli presence in Azerbaijan is a real impediment to relations with Iran. This has been publicly stated by the Iranian media and high-level Iranian politicians, even by former President Raisi, on numerous occasions.

Another interesting aspect is that Armenia is going through a process of distancing itself from the Russian Federation and the multilateral mechanisms developed by Moscow (CSTO, CIS, EAEU) and is turning to Western states, asking for cooperation with NATO, asking for strategic partnership with the US and showing its support for Ukraine. All of these are things that damage relations with Russia and Iran (and others).

Both Turkey and Iran support Palestine and have a similar, if not identical, position on Israel. Iran, of course, has no diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv, while Turkey has certain economic ties that are now under political pressure to limit. The Israeli presence in Azerbaijan negatively affects the interests of the two states, but in different ways. As for Armenia, this article could also indicate a desire of the Israeli government to initiate negotiations with Yerevan, provided it distances itself from Iran.

Economic relations between Azerbaijan and Israel began with the export of energy resources from Azerbaijan in exchange for technological and military support. These ties have continued even in the darkest moments of the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.

It is important to note that Dean Shmuel Elmas is a very vocal supporter of Ukraine. Link to the article here.

Written by: Florin Cosma