The first round of the elections for the French parliament was held on June 30. Voter turnout was high, 66.71% compared to 47.5% in the first round of the 2022 parliamentary elections, a sign that the French electorate is aware of the importance of these elections.
The “National Front”, the right-wing nationalist party led by Marin Le Pen as its emblematic leader, recorded an increase of about 11 percentage points, from 18.68% in 2022 to 29.25% in 2024. Along with the Union de l’extrême droite (which is not a party but a term used by the Minister of the Interior for Republican Party candidates who are supported by the National Front) 10,628,312 voted for the right, i.e. 33.15%. These comparisons are between the first round of 2022 and 2024, it does not include data from the second round of 2022.
The “New Popular Front”, which is an alliance of left-wing parties, led by figures such as François Ruffin, Olivier Faure, Manuel Bompard, Marine Tondelier, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Fabien Roussel, garnered 28.14% of the vote. In the first round of 2022, a similar alliance “Nouvelle Union populaire écologique et sociale” garnered 25.66% of the vote.
“Ensemble”, “Macron’s party”, did indeed win less than in the first round of 2022 but not by much. The difference between 21.27% and 25.75% is only 4.48 pp. Ensemble grew a lot in the second round, so a similar phenomenon is likely to happen this year as well. But what sparked Macron’s desire to hold parliamentary elections ahead of schedule? The results of the 2024 European Parliament elections.
“Ensemble!” won only 14.60% in the 2024 European Parliament elections, compared to 22.41% in 2019. In the first round of the parliamentary elections, however, we saw that the party gathered 21.27%. This means that there is actually an upward trend, 6.64pp.
The victories of the “National Front” cannot be disputed, but I do not think they are enough to substantially change the structure of France’s politics, at least not in the coming years.