RIAC Report No. 99 (May 2025) analyzes how external actors—namely Russia, the United States, the European Union, China, and India—are projecting influence in the Middle East and how their strategies are evolving under changing geopolitical conditions. The report explores both their policy objectives and the responses of regional states, which seek pragmatic and balanced engagement with these outside powers.
Each actor pursues a distinct orientation: Russia attempts to leverage its historical ties and pivot toward military cooperation; the U.S. maintains a security-first posture; the EU emphasizes multilateral diplomacy; China advances development and connectivity frameworks; and India seeks expanding economic and strategic partnerships. The report maps the transformations in these strategies as both global and regional dynamics shift.
Rather than ideological alignment, Middle Eastern governments prioritize tangible gains—such as infrastructure investment, trade deals, or security guarantees—when engaging external actors. The report underscores a shared inclination toward balanced relations: regional states are conscious of external influence but seek to manage it through calibrated partnerships rather than full alignment or confrontation.
The study emphasizes that future stability in the Middle East will hinge on how well these external powers can coexist without exacerbating rivalries. A fragmented environment where external players pick sides may deepen instability. The authors suggest that conflict resolution and cooperative frameworks—especially those involving China—may offer pathways toward a more inclusive regional architecture.
https://russiancouncil.ru/papers/RIAC-Middle-East-External-Report99En.pdf
