Iran-Azerbaijan Relations in the Shadow of Regional Conflict

The recent Iran-Israel conflict has exacerbated pre-existing fault lines in the Iran-Azerbaijan relationship, transforming manageable tensions into potentially explosive contradictions. While both nations acknowledge the benefits of cooperation, particularly regarding economic initiatives and transport projects, the fundamental divergence in their strategic alignments suggests that a stable, trusting relationship remains a distant prospect. Azerbaijan finds itself caught between a powerful neighbor and an increasingly active strategic partner and is forced to navigate an increasingly precarious geopolitical landscape while Iran has to take Azerbaidjan into account as a potential security risc.

The Israeli Connection: Source of Iranian Anxiety

Iran’s concerns about Azerbaijan stem primarily from Baku’s strengthening ties with Israel. Tehran has repeatedly accused its northern neighbor of allowing Israeli intelligence and military assets to operate from Azerbaijani territory in order to threaten Iranian sovereignty and security. These accusations, which intensified during the 12-day war, reflect Iran’s perception of Azerbaijan as a potential “soft flank” that Israel could exploit for deep operations inside Iranian borders. This narrative receives consistent support in Iranian state media and channels affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Azerbaijan maintains that its relationship with Israel rests purely on legitimate national interests, particularly in technology and defense sectors. Israel has become a key arms supplier to Azerbaijan, a partnership that proved instrumental in Baku’s victory during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. Despite Iran’s persistent allegations and public statements from Iranian officials suggesting Azerbaijani complicity, Baku has denied any involvement in Israeli military operations targeting Iran.

Despite this heightened tension, both sides have made efforts to maintain a fragile diplomatic détente. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s recent visits to Baku, including participation in the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Summit, and his discussions with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, signal Tehran’s desire to preserve some level of cooperation. These diplomatic engagements have yielded agreements on trade, transport, media, and cultural exchanges, demonstrating a pragmatic approach despite deep-seated distrust.

Such diplomatic overtures often face criticism from Iran’s conservative establishment, which remains deeply suspicious of Azerbaijan’s strategic alliances. The stark contrast in regional reactions to the Iran-Israel conflict—with Azerbaijan maintaining a largely neutral stance while even its regional rival Armenia joined Turkey and Pakistan in condemning Israel—further illustrates the divergent strategic alignments at play.

The Turkish Factor: Deepening the Divide

The growing alliance between Azerbaijan and Turkey further complicates the equation from Iran’s perspective. The Baku-Ankara relationship draws from deep wells of shared history, culture, and Turkic identity, manifesting in robust military cooperation, joint exercises, and unwavering political support. This formidable axis, combined with Azerbaijan’s deepening ties with Israel, creates a sense of encirclement and heightened geopolitical isolation for Iran—particularly given Russia’s diminished influence in the South Caucasus due to its preoccupation with Ukraine.

Economic Implications and Strategic Concerns

The Iran-Israel conflict has generated significant economic implications for the region. While global oil prices experienced fluctuations that potentially benefited Azerbaijan’s oil and gas revenues in the short term, Baku’s larger concern centers on regional instability threatening crucial energy and transport projects. Azerbaijan has invested heavily in establishing itself as a vital energy and logistics hub, particularly through the Southern Gas Corridor. Any sustained escalation could severely jeopardize these ambitious infrastructure projects.

The proposed Zangezur Corridor remains a significant source of contention between the two nations. This transit route would connect Azerbaijan proper to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia’s Syunik province, enjoying strong support from Azerbaijan and Turkey while facing vehement opposition from Iran. Tehran views the corridor as a direct threat to its land access routes to Russia and Europe via Armenia, interpreting it as an attempt to further isolate Iran regionally. The post-conflict environment may see Azerbaijan attempting to leverage regional distractions to advance this controversial project.

Russia’s Diminished Role and Internal Complications

Russia’s role in this evolving dynamic deserves particular attention. While historically an influential player in the South Caucasus, Russia’s preoccupation with its war in Ukraine has created a power vacuum that Turkey and Israel have eagerly filled. In response, Russia and Iran have sought to deepen their military cooperation in the Caspian Sea, as demonstrated by joint naval exercises such as CASAREX 2025. These maneuvers likely represent an attempt to assert regional dominance and counter the growing influence of Turkic states and their Western partners.

The shared ethnic Azerbaijani population residing in Iran’s northern provinces adds another layer of complexity to bilateral relations. Both governments occasionally appeal to this demographic, introducing an internal dimension to their tensions that could prove particularly volatile if relations continue deteriorating.

Future Trajectories: Uncertainty and Strategic Divergence

Looking ahead, the trajectory of Iran-Azerbaijan relations remains highly uncertain. Should Iran persist with accusations of Azerbaijani complicity with Israel while Baku continues strengthening its alliances with Tel Aviv and Ankara, the relationship will likely remain trapped in a “cold war” dynamic, perpetually susceptible to escalation with any new security incident.

The fundamental challenge lies in the clash between strategic interests and security imperatives. While both nations recognize the practical necessity of economic cooperation and regional stability, Iran’s deep-seated security concerns regarding Israel’s presence near its borders create an almost insurmountable obstacle to building genuine trust.

The South Caucasus, already one of the world’s most volatile regions, now faces even greater geopolitical complexity in the aftermath of this wider regional conflict. As traditional power structures shift and new alliances solidify, the Iran-Azerbaijan relationship serves as a microcosm of the broader realignments reshaping the Middle East and its periphery. The ultimate resolution of these tensions will likely depend not just on bilateral diplomatic efforts, but on the broader trajectory of regional conflicts and the evolving balance of power among major regional and global players.