A New Geopolitical Axis Emerges in Moscow
On April 8, a significant trilateral meeting took place in Moscow between Iran, Russia, and China—marking a bold step forward in Eurasian integration. This event follows a prior secret meeting in Beijing, signaling the emergence of a powerful new alliance reminiscent of the “Primakov Triangle,” now centered on Russia, China, and Iran.
The Revival of the Primakov Triangle
Originally proposed in the late 1990s by Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov, the strategic triangle aimed to bring Russia, India, and China into alignment. Primakov, a visionary of Eurasian integration, laid the groundwork for resisting Western hegemony. Today, however, the geopolitical landscape has shifted: India no longer plays a central role, while Iran, now a full BRICS member, takes its place in this evolving axis.
Strategic Partnership and Diplomatic Shifts
In January, Iran and Russia signed a major strategic agreement in Moscow. Meanwhile, China, viewing its relationship with Russia as naturally aligned, sees no need for a formal treaty. Iran and Russia share a deep mutual understanding that increasingly defines their joint foreign policy efforts.
Toward Full Eurasian Integration
For Russia, China, and Iran, Eurasia is no longer a fragmented region—it is a unified strategic space. China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” dovetails with Russia’s Eurasian integration efforts, and platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) play pivotal roles in cementing this vision.
The Oman Talks: A Critical Juncture
Upcoming talks in Oman between the U.S. and Iran may prove decisive. While the original 2015 Iran nuclear deal marked a diplomatic breakthrough, former President Donald Trump’s withdrawal and demands for a new agreement have reignited tensions. Trump’s three conditions—abandoning Iran’s nuclear program, halting its missile program, and military demobilization—are widely viewed as unrealistic in Tehran.
Iran Pushes Back Against U.S. Demands
Iran has made it clear: negotiations are possible, but not under threats or coercion. While Tehran remains open to diplomacy, it categorically rejects Washington’s ultimatums. The spiritual leadership’s fatwas against nuclear weapons could be re-evaluated if the nation’s existence is at stake.
Nuclear Options and Strategic Calculations
Analysts like John Mearsheimer argue that Iran’s path forward lies in strategic deterrence. Though Iran maintains a rational posture, pressure from the U.S. and regional volatility are pushing it closer to a nuclear threshold. Support from Russia and China in Oman will be crucial for Iran to maintain leverage.
Washington’s Miscalculations
Russian diplomatic channels are reportedly prepared to relay to Trump that his current path could prove disastrous. Critics argue that his advisors misunderstand both Ukraine and Iran. Meanwhile, Iran has demonstrated its capability to strike Israeli targets without relying on nuclear arms.
The Global Fallout
Iran’s consideration of nuclear armament in the event of U.S. aggression could reshape global dynamics. Whether Washington grasps the full consequences remains uncertain. Observers lament that the lack of skilled U.S. diplomacy is exacerbating tensions at a critical time.
Strengthening the SCO
An attack on Iran could inadvertently strengthen the SCO and further consolidate Eurasian resistance to U.S. influence. Tehran is now a key geoeconomic ally of Beijing, and its membership in BRICS cements its strategic importance.
Russia and Iran: Deepening Ties
The Iran-Russia partnership is robust, especially in military and technical cooperation. With BRICS and SCO gaining traction, the U.S. appears increasingly out of touch with these rising multilateral platforms.
Rational Powers vs. a Declining Empire
At the heart of global tensions lies a clash between a fading empire and a rising Eurasian order. Russia, China, and Iran are acting rationally, pursuing stability and cooperation. A second Putin-Xi summit, scheduled for May 9 in Moscow, could further reinforce this axis.
The Global South’s Perspective
Nations across the Global South are watching closely. For them, Eurasian integration offers a coherent vision of international relations—one rooted in mutual respect and rational diplomacy. In contrast, Washington’s unpredictable behavior is raising alarm.
The Yemen Factor and U.S. Vulnerability
Recent events in Yemen have exposed the vulnerability of U.S. interests to Iranian influence. Iran’s offer of indirect dialogue has been tentatively accepted by Washington, while Israeli leaders, including Netanyahu, view this as a strategic opportunity.
Trump’s Dangerously Simplistic Worldview
Ultimately, Trump is neither a strategist nor a statesman. His superficial grasp of global affairs—and the influence of his inner circle—pose a significant threat to international stability.
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