The lack of workers is difficult and unnecessary to deny, the problem is getting worse, writes the Russian newspaper Независимая газета | Nezavisimaya Gazeta. From what can be seen, it is the lack of workers, and not sanctions or other factors, that will have an increasing negative impact on the economy of the Russian Federation. These difficulties could be aggravated by monetary restrictions, and experts are now talking about the risks of stagnation or even recession.
The problem of the shortage of qualified personnel has intensified: “In the second quarter of 2024 the supply of personnel reached a new all-time low,” the Central Bank’s specialists reported in the July issue of Мониторинга предприятий | Enterprise Monitor (based on research involving almost 15 thousand organizations).
The specializations most affected by this shortage are engineers, plumbers, IT staff, warehouse workers and drivers. According to the study, enterprises producing intermediate goods and for commercial/civil use continued to face the most acute shortages.
In the third quarter, companies in the main sectors of the economy plan to increase the number of employees. At the same time, business forecasts became less positive than in the previous quarter, with the exception of consumer and intermediate goods manufacturing companies, as well as mining.
ELVIRA NABIULLINA
In July this year, 34% of the surveyed companies applied for loans. The lending conditions in the economy have tightened significantly. According to the Central Bank’s report, with the increase in interest rates on loans, including preferential loans, banks have started to increase the processing time of applications.
What shocked observers the most was something else, a slowdown in the growth of economic activity. “The Bank of Russia notes a sharp deterioration of the business climate indicator; the decline began in April and continued in June,” comments the analytical Telegram channel “Spydell_finance” about the monitoring results.
The central bank reports that the “business climate indicator” fell to 7.7 points in July, compared to 10.6 points recorded a month earlier. However, the value remains above the average for 2023, so it is an increase, but at a much slower pace. According to MMI analysts, “an economic slowdown is inevitable when human resources are depleted. The GDP growth of 3 – 4% per year does not correspond to our capacities”.
Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASTF) | Центра макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования criticizes the Central Bank’s approach in trying to tame inflation. According to the CMASTF report, the effect is one of “imposing stagnation”.
However, the problem of worker shortages is chronic and is at the basis of negative forecasts for the Russian economy. What are the authorities going to do? The State Duma has started discussing draft laws on tightening migration policy. The first draft law was drafted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and provides for the registration of foreigners in the register of monitored persons.
This extremist tendency on the part of the authorities takes place against the background of incidents (but they did not start from these incidents) that centered on Mikhail Matveev, deputy of the State Duma on behalf of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. In an interview in January 2024, he attacked Muslim immigrants, which earned him a strong response from the President of the Republic of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov. He demanded his immediate removal from parliament. On July 18 this year, Matveiev was attacked on the streets of Samara by a “group of three immigrants”, one from Uzbekistan and the other from Tajikistan. Apparently, they were walking on the street with sticks in their hands and harassing passers-by. Matveiev chose to intervene believing that his status as a parliamentarian would defend him. The three hooligans were not impressed.
Currently, the authorities are also seeking to simplify deportation procedures.
Alexander Bastrikin, Head of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation since 2011, is the main figure who militates for the tightening of conditions for immigrants. He sent the State Duma a list of proposals to tighten the migration policy.
In the list of measures, Bashrykin proposes mandatory legislation on fingerprinting and genomic registration of all foreign citizens entering and leaving Russia. He also proposes measures to tighten the language field, insisting as a mandatory requirement the knowledge of the Russian language by migrants’ children, at the level necessary for admission to educational institutions. “If you don’t know Russian, there’s nothing you can do at school. But in fact, the children of migrants, in principle, have no place in Russia.”
At the same time, it considers it necessary to create a unified information base with all information on migrants. Bastrikin proposes “to regulate more strictly the issue of deprivation of citizenship for naturalized citizens.” He wants employers to take on more responsibilities towards the migrants they employ, such as providing housing, compensation for travel expenses and a financial reserve “in case of deportation”. “The employer’s personal responsibility for foreign nationals’ compliance with the requirements of migration legislation” raises many questions about how far this responsibility goes.
On July 19, State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin announced that three new federal bills on migration control would be submitted to the lower house. The documents provide for increased criminal liability for organizing illegal migration.
Comment
Most countries facing demographic problems, which can lead to a chronic shortage of workers, have opted to receive immigrants, particularly for jobs that do not require substantial training. Russia is already doing this, to a certain extent, in the field of transport by hiring drivers from CIS member countries. But it is strange how at a time when Russia’s economy needs more labor to stop an economic downturn, there are movements in the political space that militate for restrictions and even for blocking immigration.